Silvia Ascarelli/MarketWatch A sign of rising wages: an Aldi store in New Jersey that had previously advertised jobs paying $12 and $16 an hour.Last Friday the Labor Department put out a very solid monthly jobs report, and the media treated it accordingly: Employment increased by 213,000 in June and hourly earnings rose by 2.7% on an annual basis. Both were well within economists’ consensus, and Wall Street seemed pleased: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.31% gained almost 100 points and the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.88% rose slightly less than 1% on Friday. Both are rising sharply on Monday as well. But most pundits underplayed what may turn out, in retrospect, to be the most significant data point: The unemployment rate rose last month, to 4% from 3.8% in May. That may not seem like a big deal. It’s still around the lowest unemployment rate since 2000, and June’s increase was driven by 601,000 people entering the labor force, as a good economy drew more job seekers. But in a column I wrote last year, I went back to 1948, when the Labor Department first started tracking unemployment, and showed that historically, when the unemployment rate hit its low for the cycle, a bear market and recession haven’t been far behind.via